A study from analytical company IDATE has claimed that the market value of television industry worldwide is set to reach €355b (£281b, $435b) by the year 2020, claiming that while users will be able to reach content in many ways quickly and easily by that point, it will not be enough to completely derail the traditional viewing methods.
The 8-year forecast, which notes the ‘core disruptions and innovations that will alter the TV and video market as we know it’, claims that from last year’s estimated market value of €233b, the industry will grow by an average of 4.7% year-on-year, with ‘emerging markets’ expected to be the leading cause of the incline.
IDATE claim that Brazil, China, India, and Russia will be amongst the emerging markets that will take greater control of the industry of ‘global TV services’ (with the ‘rest of the world’ from 20% in 2011 to a 2020 estimate of 42%), while traditional leaders such as USA, Japan, and the ‘leading five’ European markets will see their collective share drop from 80% to just under 60%.
It is claimed that the current dominant markets (in particular Italy and Spain) should still grow (with the exception of pay-TV in Germany), though American users may see ‘over-the-top content (OTT)’ ‘weigh on the sector’s revenue’. In addition, IDATE note that on-demand services could ‘disrupt’ the income for conventional means of viewing content, but claim that it will only be a ‘disruptive’ effect rather than a damaging one.
IDATE project manager Gilles Fontaine said of the development of pay-TV markets (expected to be split into the major categories of the more traditional ‘package’, fast-developing means of ‘digital store’, and the slightly unconventional non-contract process of ‘self-supply’): “New on-demand services will increase their share of the global video market from 3% in 2011 to 12% in 2020 – enjoying an especially high share in developed countries. By 2020, connected TV will be a significant market and will account for 63% of the new OTT services market, with viewing on the PC taking a backseat. The upshot, then, is that managed networks’ share of the new services market will be in decline.”
With IDATE laying out what they feel is the future of TV around the world, will the processes become as easy to define as they have drawn out, or is the window of estimation too large to make any predictions considering possible new developments?